The 2029 Deadline Nobody Building Agent Infrastructure Is Talking About

The 2029 Deadline Nobody Building Agent Infrastructure Is Talking About Three signals converged this week. Every agent identity protocol shipping today uses ECC. That's a problem with a concrete timeline. April 7, 2026 This week, three independent researchers published findings about quantum computing that should be alarming to everyone building agent identity infrastructure. Scott Aaronson — a quantum computing researcher at Caltech — published an analysis suggesting that approximately 25,000 physical qubits may be sufficient to break ECC-256. The previous estimate was in the millions. Then Oratomic sharpened the number further: roughly 10,000 physical qubits. Then Filippo Valsorda, a prominent cryptographer, posted the clearest framing: "The risk is now high enough to be dispositive. Are you 100% sure CRQC won't exist by 2029?" Google's cryptography team has now stated 2029 as a concrete migration deadline — not a theoretical horizon. Three signals, 72 hours, the same conclusion. Her